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PETALING JAYA: Bursa Malaysia Bhd is expected to experience a decline in earnings for 2022 due to higher taxation from Cukai Makmur, lower equity average daily trading volumes (ADTV), and an increase in depreciation charges.

CGS-CIMB Research noted that although the exchange holding company’s net profit for the first half of 2022 (1H22) dropped by nearly 40% year-on-year (y-o-y) following a 26% y-o-y decline in revenue, the group’s net profit was still slightly above its expectations.

“Bursa’s 1H22 net profit was at 59% of our full-year estimate, mainly due to lower-than-expected operating expense (opex) which declined by 3.8% y-o-y in that period,” the research house noted in a report.

Bursa’s declining earnings and revenue in 1H22 were compounded by a 46.4% y-o-y contraction in ADTV.

For the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22), ADTV’s drop of 43.2% y-o-y caused the bourse’s revenue to fall by 22.5% to RM151.9mil. Quarterly net profit was 33.1% y-o-y lower at RM59.5mil due to an increase in depreciation charges.

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Despite the drop in Bursa’s revenue and net profit, CGS-CIMB said the results were 2.8% and 29.1% higher than its estimate.

In a report dated July 14, 2022, the research house had forecast Bursa to report a net profit of RM46.1mil for 2Q22, and the stronger net profit of RM59.5mil in 2Q22 was positive, it added.

Another positive was Bursa’s interim dividend per share of 15 sen, a payout rate of 95%, which was above CGS-CIMB’s projected 24 sen for the financial year 2022 (FY22), or a payout rate of 89%.

Moving forward, CGS-CIMB forecast Bursa to experience a 32.9% y-o-y decline in group earnings to RM97.3mil as a result of higher taxation for the Cukai Makmur tax expense.

“We raise our FY22 to FY24 earnings per share forecast by around 4.3% as we cut our projected opex by around 5%. Consequently, our target price increases from RM6.59 to RM7,” CGS-CIMB noted.

It reiterated a “hold” call on Bursa, as it believes the decline in equity ADTV is priced in, given its low 2023 price to earnings per share ratio of 19.6 times, which is below the five-year historical average of 21.5 times.